ABSTRACT:  A price equilibrium econometric model of the U.S., Mexico and Caribbean nations melon industries was estimated to identify, measure, and forecast forces impacting international trade. Simulation analysis shows the 1994-1995 devaluation of the peso to have the greatest short-run influence on Mexican melon exports to the United States while improved Mexican yields have the greatest long-run impact. The tariff-reducing provisions of NAFTA have a comparatively modest influence on Mexican melon exports.
 
 

*  Espinoza Arellano is Researcher in the National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIFAP) Mexico, Fuller is Professor and Malaga is Assistant Research Scientist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas.