Stephen Fuller, Tun-Hsiang Yu, Luis Fellin, Alejandro Lalor and Ricardo Krajewski
TAMRC International Market Research Report No. IM-2-01
October 2001
Abstract: South America has emerged as a major competitor
of the United States in the international grain market over the past two
decades. This study explores the effects of transportation system
improvements in South America on their competitiveness in the world grain
markets. Analysis is carried out with spatial, inter-temporal models
that represent forecasted international corn and soybean economies
in 2010. Analyses focuses on port facility improvements, improved
navigability of the lower Parana River, the Parana-Paraguay Waterway, the
Madeira-Amazon Waterway, extension of a railroad into central-west Brazil
and development of a highway linking central-west Brazil to Amazon River
ports. Results show the improved transportation systems increase
South American corn and soybean exports about 8 and 2 percent, respectively,
while U.S. prices, revenues and exports modestly decline. Corn prices
in the U.S. decline about $0.25/metric ton as a result of the improved
transport network while soybean prices decline $2.12/metric ton, and combined
corn and soybean revenues of U.S. producers decline about $290 million
per year. Although the revenue loss is significant, it represents
a small fraction of U.S. producers annual corn and soybean revenues.
The Texas Agricultural Market Research Center (TAMRC)
has been providing timely, unique and professional research on a wide range
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